This piece of economic data will determine if the Fed cuts 25bps or 50bps: Citi

Investing.com — As the Federal Reserve prepares for its upcoming meeting, the main topic for discussion has been whether the central bank will opt for a 25 basis point (bps) or a more aggressive 50 bps interest rate cut.

According to Citi analysts in a note Friday, the answer could hinge on one key economic indicator: retail sales.

Citi analysts stated that while their base case remains a 25 bps cut followed by two 50 bps reductions later in the year, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report could push the Fed towards a more aggressive 50 bps move.

“The decision might come down to next week’s retail sales reading,” the bank said. “While soft auto sales means that headline retail sales will be down, the control group will be up (+0.2%) according to our forecast.”

The bank added that “with the savings rates low, credit card delinquencies rising and individuals more worried about job loss risks are balanced to the downside.”

Citi analysts further noted that recent polling data has shown a slight improvement in the Democratic candidate’s position, but the race remains too close to call.

Ultimately, the Fed’s decision will be based on a careful assessment of a variety of economic indicators. However, as Citi analysts suggest, retail sales could play a particularly crucial role in determining the size of the upcoming interest rate cut.

Earlier this week, Citi economists said it sees a more modest rate cut by the Federal Reserve following the release of the latest inflation report.